菜粕周报：政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal has been fluctuating and declining, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile pattern [8] - Rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The report provides an overall view of rapeseed meal, including its current market situation, influencing factors, and future trends [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [10] - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11] - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [18] - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills decreased significantly, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [20][22] - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [32] - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [30] 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8] 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [12] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [12] 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bullish volatile pattern in the short term, but the future of China - Canada trade relations is uncertain [41] - The KDJ indicator is fluctuating at a low level, indicating a technical consolidation stage. It may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [41] - The MACD is declining, showing a slightly bearish short - term trend, but the green energy has not expanded. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [41] 3.8 Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44] - Second most important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [45] - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]