广发期货《黑色》日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel supply - demand gap is narrowing. Although demand shows seasonal improvement, it is still insufficient during the peak season. Considering high - level exports, seasonal demand improvement, and a favorable macro - environment, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Suggested to try long positions with light positions and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The supply - demand fundamentals improved slightly, but it was still insufficient during the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain at a relatively high level in October, but there is a risk of port inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to view the single - side position as oscillating, short the iron ore 2601 contract at high prices, and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. Spot prices are expected to gradually rebound. The supply side has a slight decline in production, while the demand side has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [6]. - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The domestic coking coal market is relatively strong. After the recent significant restocking, the downstream restocking demand may decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased. All rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts dropped to 0 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1%. Rebar production remained unchanged, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 15% and converter output increasing by 2.2%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6%, rebar inventory decreased by 2.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 12.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 2.8%, rebar apparent demand increased by 5.0%, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand remained unchanged [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for most types increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 7.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5% [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume decreased by 0.8%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the prices of some types remained unchanged, while the prices of futures contracts decreased. The coking coal basis increased. For coke, the prices of some types decreased, and the prices of futures contracts also decreased. The coke basis increased [6]. Profit - The weekly sample coal mine profit decreased, while the weekly coking profit increased by 7.4% [6]. Supply - Coke production remained unchanged, and the production of some coking coal mines increased. The overall coking coal supply showed an upward trend [6]. Demand - The molten iron output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed an upward trend [6]. Inventory - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, with coking plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. The overall coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with mines and ports reducing inventory and other links increasing inventory [6].