Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - The Fed's expected 2 rate cuts in 2025 may benefit copper prices. In the second half of the year, copper demand may weaken marginally, but supply concerns due to mine disruptions support the price. Short - term prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise, with the main contract focusing on the 81000 - 81500 support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be high - level volatile after a pullback, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high - level volatile, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range. Cost and pre - holiday stocking support the price, while weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation are constraints [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from zinc mines to zinc ingots. Zinc prices will continue to be under pressure. The short - term price may rise due to macro factors, but the supply - side situation limits the upward space. The main contract is expected to be in the 21200 - 22200 range [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices are expected to weaken; otherwise, they may continue the high - level volatile trend, with the operating range at 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract in the 120000 - 125000 range. Cost provides support, but medium - term supply is expected to be loose [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be in short - term shock adjustment, with the main contract in the 12600 - 13200 range. Cost provides support, but the peak - season demand is not met as expected [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to be shock - sorted in the short term, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range. Supply is in a tight balance, and demand in the peak season provides support [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the import profit and loss was - 1484 yuan/ton, up 17.1 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 187 dollars/ton, down 13 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day; the period - spot spread was 13270 yuan/ton, up 12790 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [19].
《有色》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-29 03:22