《能源化工》日报-20250929

Chlor - Alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, in Q4, the downside space is limited. There may be concentrated stocking behavior in Q4 due to alumina's planned production in Q1 next year. Short - term demand has support, but future alumina purchase prices may be lowered [2]. - For PVC, in Q4, the downside space is limited during the peak season. The supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand in Q3 did not show well. Exports have alleviated some excess pressure, and attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, while the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply: The overall start - up rate of the PVC industry increased by 0.7 percentage points to 76.1% on September 26 compared with September 19. The start - up rate data of the caustic soda industry was not available [2]. - Demand: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly. For example, the start - up rate of the alumina industry remained unchanged at 83.7%, and the start - up rate of the Longzhong sample pipe industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4% [2]. - Inventory: As of September 25, compared with September 18, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the total social inventory of PVC remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [2]. 2. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PX, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price will be under pressure. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on high spreads [6]. - For PTA, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it will follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on the TA1 - 5 spread [6]. - For ethylene glycol, in Q4, it is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the price is under pressure. Strategies include shorting EG01 and reverse - arbitraging on the EG1 - 5 spread [6]. - For short - fiber, in the short - term, the price may be supported, but if the terminal demand in October cannot follow up, the supply - demand will turn to an expected pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [6]. - For bottle - chips, in Q4, it is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the processing fee is under pressure. Strategies include following the PTA for single - side trading and shorting the processing fee on high spreads [6]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 75 yuan/ton to 6605 yuan/ton, and the price of PTA East China spot increased by 5 yuan/ton to 4590 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply - demand and Inventory: In Q4, the supply of PX and domestic ethylene glycol is expected to be high, while the demand of downstream products such as PTA and bottle - chips is in the off - season. The inventory of MEG ports and domestic urea is also in a state of change [6]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed weekly. For example, the start - up rate of Asian PX decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.0%, and the start - up rate of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 76.8% [6]. 3. Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, currently, the inventory of PE and PP has decreased. However, after the holiday, there is a large inventory pressure, and with new capacity coming on - stream, the inventory accumulation pressure of the 01 contract is large, which limits the upside space [9]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of L2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 7159 yuan/ton [9]. - Inventory: As of the relevant update time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory of PE and PP decreased. For example, the PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.2 million tons to 45.8 million tons [9]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased. For example, the start - up rate of PE devices increased by 1.48 percentage points to 81.8%, and the start - up rate of PP devices increased by 0.63 percentage points to 75.5% [9]. 4. Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol will continue to fluctuate. The supply side has a balance between the resumption of some domestic devices and the expected reduction of overseas supply. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation and domestic demand realization [39]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the closing price of MA2601 increased slightly, and the basis of Taicang changed. For example, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton [39]. - Inventory: As of the Wednesday update, the enterprise inventory, port inventory and social inventory of methanol decreased. For example, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05 million tons to 31.994 million tons [39]. - Start - up Rate: On September 26, compared with the previous value, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased. For example, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 1.61 percentage points to 74.27% [39]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be high due to the resumption of some devices and new capacity coming on - stream. The demand support is limited, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 should follow the benzene - styrene and oil prices to fluctuate [42]. - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support may be limited. The price is still under pressure. EB11 should be shorted on rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [42]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene East China spot decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China spot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 6910 yuan/ton [42]. - Inventory: As of the weekly update, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. For example, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7 million tons to 10.7 million tons [42]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed. For example, the start - up rate of domestic pure benzene increased by 0.9 percentage points to 79.3%, and the start - up rate of styrene decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 73.2% [42]. 6. Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures price fluctuates downward. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, with high domestic production, weak demand, and a weak international price. The export policy adjustment and new Indian tender have not effectively boosted market confidence [50]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of urea futures contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton [46]. - Supply - demand and Inventory: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the inventory in factories increased, while the port inventory decreased. For example, the domestic daily urea production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.94 million tons, and the domestic factory inventory increased by 5.29 million tons to 121.82 million tons [50]. 7. Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In Q4, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In early October, they may be strong due to geopolitical risks and low inventory. In the middle, they may face pressure due to increased production and inventory recovery. In the later period, they may trend weakly due to loose supply and weakened geopolitical risks. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy for single - side trading, a positive - arbitrage strategy for arbitrage, and wait for opportunities to widen the volatility in the options market [52]. Summary by Catalog - Prices: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI, SC and other crude oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 0.56 US dollars/barrel to 69.57 US dollars/barrel [52]. - Spreads: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 and other indicators changed. For example, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 2.82 US dollars/barrel to 0.92 US dollars/barrel [52].