Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Report Date - The report date is September 29, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price of the 2025/26 new cotton pre - sale blind box (mainly with double 29 and impurity within 3) was between 14,700 - 15,000 yuan on a legal weight basis, and the pre - sale basis for the same quality was between CF01 + 950 - 1100, with delivery from the end of September to the end of October [7] - In the pure cotton yarn market, the trading was average, sentiment was cautious, spinners and traders lacked confidence, inventory reduction slowed down, and yarn prices were under pressure with large losses. The overall cotton grey fabric market was stable recently. The shipment of low - count regular varieties decreased slightly compared with the previous period and was far behind the same period in previous years. Weaving factories sold at current prices [7] - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. Due to limited adjustment in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the overall market fluctuated weakly within a range. In the domestic market, the low acquisition price of machine - picked seed cotton with 42% lint percentage was about 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg, but the actual trading volume was small. Recently, due to hail and rainfall in some areas of northern Xinjiang, the new cotton acquisition was slow. The market was concerned about the price after the increase in seed cotton acquisition volume during the holiday. On the demand side, the finished product inventory still decreased steadily. Recently, the inventory reduction speed of the grey fabric end was slightly better than that of the cotton yarn end, but the overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years, and the downstream had little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short term, the supply of new cotton was limited, and it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest after the holiday [8] Operational Suggestions - No operational suggestions were provided in the text Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the proportion of cotton - growing areas affected by drought in the United States was 49%, compared with 41% last week and 32% in the same period last year [9] - According to the latest USDA data, as of the week ending September 18, 2025/2026 (unit: 10,000 tons): 1. Sales: The net signing of U.S. cotton was 21,500 tons (month - on - month decrease of 21,900 tons, year - on - year decrease of 5,900 tons). The cumulative signing this year was 946,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 190,000 tons. The cumulative signing volume accounted for 36.2% of the export forecast, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6 percentage points and a decrease of 16.0 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The sales gap was 1.67 million tons, and the average weekly sales required for the remaining period was 37,000 tons. 2. Shipment: The shipment of U.S. cotton was 32,300 tons (month - on - month increase of 4,400 tons, year - on - year increase of 1,800 tons). The cumulative shipment this year was 219,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,300 tons. The shipment progress was 8.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The shipment gap was 2.39 million tons, and the average weekly shipment required for the remaining period was 53,200 tons [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20][26][28]
建信期货棉花日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-29 03:56