大越期货贵金属周报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the expectation of interest rate cuts was high, the PCE met expectations, copper prices rose significantly, and the prices of gold and silver continued to expand their gains. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations. Given the approaching National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the approaching deadline for the US government shutdown, and the concentration of important US data such as non - farm payrolls, coupled with high market attention, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Price Changes: The prices of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai Gold 2512, Shanghai Silver 2512, etc., showed varying degrees of increase. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 rose 3.17%, and Shanghai Silver 2512 rose 6.98%. The US dollar index rose 0.55%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.3% [4][13]. - Macroeconomic Data: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - Policy and Political Events: The White House warned of potential permanent layoffs during a government shutdown, escalating the budget deadlock. All living former Fed chairmen and many former US Treasury secretaries, White House economic advisers, and economists urged the US Supreme Court not to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US finalized a tariff agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1, and exempting some EU products from tariffs from September 1 [13][14][15]. - Other Economic Data: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Review - Market Trends: The expectation of interest rate cuts increased again last week, and gold and silver prices rose. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the US government shutdown deadline, and the concentration of important US data, the upward trend of gold and silver prices remains, but there may be significant fluctuations. Silver prices rose sharply on Friday night, but there was a reduction in positions on that day, so investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. - Position Analysis: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Macroeconomic Data: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - Industry - related Data: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.4 Position Data - Shanghai Gold and Silver Positions: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. There were obvious single - day increases in positions for both Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver during the week, but there was a reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in prices [13]. - CFTC Positions: As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13][31]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly in an oscillatory manner, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly in an oscillatory manner [34][36]. - Inventory Data: The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase significantly, the COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, the Shanghai Silver inventory increased significantly, and the COMEX silver inventory increased slightly [38][39][41]. 3.5 Summary - The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays due to the approaching US government shutdown deadline and the concentration of important US data. Given the reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in silver prices, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13].