建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250929

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 all declined, with decreases of -1.24%, -1.20%, and -0.94% respectively [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.57 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.78 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core Viewpoint - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. However, the supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. If the long positions are profitable, consider taking profits on rallies [8] - The 10 - month contract is likely to enter the delivery month with a high discount. The upside space of this rebound should not be overestimated. Future contract operations need to continuously monitor elimination and replenishment data [8] Operational Suggestions - If the long positions are profitable, consider taking profits on rallies [8] - Continuously monitor elimination and replenishment data, as the fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of August, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9] - In August, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.81 million, a decrease from July and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [9] - In the first three weeks as of September 18, the national chicken culling volume showed an upward trend, and the current absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years [10] - As of September 18, the average age of culled chickens was 497 days, 2 days later than the previous week and 9 days earlier than the previous month [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average price, egg 10 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread [13][17][12] - Data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [14][15][20]