大越期货燃料油周报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil prices increased, and fuel oil prices also rose strongly due to the extension of Russia's export ban. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,972 yuan/ton, up 6.29% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,525 yuan/ton, up 3.92% for the week [5]. - The main problem in the 0.5% sulfur marine fuel market is sufficient inventory. Under the current market structure, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is difficult to release as no one wants to sell at a discounted price. Near - term demand for low - sulfur fuel oil will remain moderate with limited inquiries. The weak trend of low - sulfur marine fuel has narrowed the Hi - 5 spread between Singapore's low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil. However, Asian refinery autumn maintenance may cut regional supply in the coming weeks, which may support the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, with the spot premium of 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil reaching its highest level in more than two months. There has been some raw material demand for high - sulfur fuel oil recently, especially from China. Although the power generation demand in the public utility sector is weak, the support for high - sulfur fuel oil currently comes mainly from the marine fuel market and refinery raw material demand. Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices still have room to rise, and fuel oil prices will also rise with the trend. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,850 - 3,050 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,450 - 3,600 range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,972 yuan/ton, up 6.29% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,525 yuan/ton, up 3.92% for the week. Crude oil prices have room to rise, and fuel oil prices will follow. Trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,850 - 3,050 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,450 - 3,600 range [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,804 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,842 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 1.35%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,406 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,404 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% [6]. - Spot Prices: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel all increased, with increases ranging from 0.10% to 2.26% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Consumption: Charts show the consumption of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margins from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory as of September 24 was 2,316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels from the previous period [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - A chart shows the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures [15].