大越期货白糖周报-20250929

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report (September 22 - September 26) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded after hitting the bottom and stopped falling in the short - term, mainly due to short - sellers reducing their positions after continuous declines and the impact of Typhoon "Koinu". However, the rebound strength is not large [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market supply. StoneX expects a surplus of 277 million tons, while ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast [5]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, after continuous declines in Zhengzhou sugar futures, some short positions took profits and left the market. The typhoon affected the sugarcane - producing areas in southern Guangxi, which may lead to a production reduction, causing the main 01 contract to show a short - term volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday due to large uncertainties [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new - year global supply, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [5]. - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. In July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market supply: ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons; Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons [5][35]. - The sugar - cane planting and production data in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are as follows: the sugar - cane planting area, harvest area, yield per unit area, and sugar production are all provided, along with import, consumption, and price data [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from 2024 to 2025 is provided, with different ICE raw sugar average prices and corresponding costs [38]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content