棉花周报（9.22-9.26）-20250929

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expectation of a strong market in September was disappointed. Cotton prices continued to decline this week, with Zhengzhou cotton dropping significantly. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the upcoming National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The cotton market continued its downward trend this week. The expected strong market in September did not materialize. Xinjiang's cotton harvest is promising. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year in terms of production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report predicts a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report predicts a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is almost half over, but the market is quiet. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. With the new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the total global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 cotton year, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 2025/26 cotton year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and the ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content related to position data is provided in the report.