大越期货沥青期货早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. Demand recovery is underwhelming, with current demand below historical average levels. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 312,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, and the output was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, and the loss of asphalt processing has decreased [7]. - Basis: On September 26th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 50 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; factory inventory was 658,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [7]. - Expectation: The refinery's production has increased, raising supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than expected despite the stimulation of the peak season. The inventory remains stable, and the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, and production data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, and production volume changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.07% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.58% [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [16][17]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [19][20]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil through charts [22][23]. - Crude Oil Cracking Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 through charts [25][26][27]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts [29][30][31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [32][33]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [34][35]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [37][38][39]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [41][42]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [43][44]. - Production Volume: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [46][47]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [50][52]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical production volume trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [53][54]. - 开工率: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [56][57]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [58][59]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts [61][62][64]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 through charts [65][66]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [68][69]. - Import and Export Situation: - The report shows the historical export and import volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [71][72]. - The report shows the historical price difference trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [74][75][76]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical production volume trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [77][78]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [80][81]. - Downstream Demand: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts [83][84][85]. - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 through charts [87][88][90]. - Asphalt Operating Rate: - The report shows the historical operating rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [92][93]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [95][96]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [98][99][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [103][104].