大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 74,580 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 72,880 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.20%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will reduce production, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Price Trend: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate declined this week, with the opening price on Monday at 74,580 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 72,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.20% [4]. - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,989 tons, a 0.93% increase; lithium mica production was 2,840 tons, a 0.69% decrease; salt lake production was 2,763 tons, a 0.66% increase; recycling production was 1,924 tons, a 1.85% increase [4]. - Demand Side: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, an 8.25% increase. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a 5.24% increase. The export volume in August was 369 physical tons, a 0.82% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, an 11.11% increase. The production and installation of power batteries, the production of energy - storage batteries, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles all showed growth trends, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,418 yuan/ton, a 0.12% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a 2.79% decrease; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a 2.35% increase; other inventories were 42,440 tons, a 2.61% decrease; the total inventory was 136,825 tons, a 0.51% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Market - related Data: The report presents the price trends of lithium carbonate, including the main contract price, battery - grade price, and basis. It also shows the production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium ores, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, as well as their supply - demand balance sheets [12][15][18][27][32]. - Cost - profit Analysis: It analyzes the cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - The main 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week. By analyzing the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages of the LC main contract, it is predicted that the futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment next week [78].