工业硅期货周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.50%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production schedule will increase, the demand recovery will be at a low level, and the cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract also declined this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75%. It is predicted that the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable, and the disk is expected to have a neutral sideways adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, remaining unchanged. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is 226,000 tons; in the organic silicon sector, the inventory is 73,200 tons, and the production profit is - 708 yuan/ton; in the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 72,000 tons [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, remaining unchanged; the sample enterprise inventory is 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease; the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [6]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease; the battery cell production is in a loss state, and the component production is profitable. The production schedules for September of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to increase [6]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,400 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a historically high level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report presents the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises, as well as the registered warehouse receipt volume [18]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the start - up rate trends [20][21][22]. - Cost: It includes the electricity price trends in main production areas, the silicon stone price trends in main production places, the graphite electrode price trends, and the price trends of some reducing agents [25]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Both the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [29][32]. - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: It analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc. [34][36][41]. - Aluminum Alloy: It examines the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (in the automotive and wheel hub sectors) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][49]. - Polysilicon: It studies the cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation related to polysilicon [52][55][58][61][64][67][70][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [75][77]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract declined, and it is predicted to have a narrow - range sideways adjustment next week [78][79].