大越期货PVC期货早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [14]. - PVC2601 Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4867 - 4927 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Likely Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Supply: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC exports are affected [7]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, with a 19.20% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, with a 1.00% decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2329.25 yuan/ton, with no change in profit, lower than the historical average, and scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.2 Basis - On September 26, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 117 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is negative [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% increase. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% increase, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% increase. Social inventory was 534,700 tons, a 0.01% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase, which is negative [9]. 3.2.4 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is negative [9]. 3.2.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions increased, which is negative [9]. 3.2.6 Expectation - Calcium carbide - based costs weakened, ethylene - based costs strengthened, and overall costs weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics [9].