广发期货《农产品》日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - Spread Changes: - Inter - month spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - Cross - variety spreads: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - Futures Market: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - Related Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - Corn: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - Corn Starch: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - Futures Market: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].