大越期货PVC期货周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 4,955 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 4,897 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.17%. It is expected that next week's demand may remain sluggish, and with a decrease in expected maintenance and a slight increase in expected production scheduling, the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.27%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [5]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.91%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.43%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 63.93%, a month-on-month decrease of 12.9 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.31%, a month-on-month increase of 7.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 19.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,329.25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in profit of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.92%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.94%. Ethylene factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.81%. Social inventory was 534,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.01%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a month-on-month increase of 2.91%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [60].