大越期货原油周报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, crude oil rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment all influenced the oil price. The supply gap of OPEC+ supported the oil price, while the increase in Iraqi oil export expectations and other factors brought downward pressure at times. The report suggests short - term trading within the 485 - 505 range and long - term investors to exit long positions on rallies [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price Movement: NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $65.19 per barrel, up 4.54% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $68.82 per barrel, up 4.19% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 495 yuan per barrel, up 1.64% for the week. Brent crude closed above $70 per barrel on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.2%, and WTI was close to $66 per barrel [5]. - Geopolitical Events: Ukraine attacked Russian ports, paralyzing oil facilities with a daily export capacity of about 2 million barrels. Russia extended its export ban on some energy products. The US pressured Turkey and NATO members to stop buying Russian oil, and the UN may re - impose sanctions on Iran, tightening global supply [5][6]. - Supply - related News: Iraq reached an agreement for the central government to receive and export Kurdish - produced oil. OPEC+ has a supply gap of nearly 500,000 barrels per day, mainly due to compensatory cuts and shrinking idle capacity [5][6][7]. - Fund Positions: As of the week of September 23, Brent crude futures' speculative net long positions decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts, while WTI crude net long positions increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. 3.2 Related News - Iraq's central government will take over the export of Kurdish - produced oil, aiming to solve the problem of lost fiscal revenue caused by the autonomous export of the Kurdish region [6]. - India asked the US to allow it to buy oil from Iran and Venezuela if it is required to cut Russian oil imports, warning that cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could lead to a global oil price spike [6]. 3.3 Outlook - The supply gap of OPEC+ supports the upward movement of oil prices. Saudi Arabia may increase sales to make up for potential revenue losses and prove that other OPEC+ members' idle capacity is lower than expected [7]. - There is a risk that the US government may shut down before the National Day holiday in the Chinese domestic market, and investors should control their positions [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.65 to 64.28, with a growth rate of 1.02% [11]. - Inventory Data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the EIA inventory decreased by 60.7 million barrels to 414.754 million barrels on September 19 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC Fund Net Long Positions: The net long positions of WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of September 23 [20]. - ICE Fund Net Long Positions: The net long positions of Brent crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts as of September 23 [21].