Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows mixed signals. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has picked up. Cost support is weakening, and inventory levels are high. The market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. - The polysilicon market is also facing a complex situation. Supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak. Cost support is stable, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [8]. - The main factors affecting the market include cost increases, production cuts by manufacturers, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the oversupply of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% week - on - week increase [6]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 73,200 tons, also at a high level; alloy ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 26, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Expected Trend: The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,825 - 9,095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week increase. The estimated output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers is in a loss state. The production of battery cells is also in a loss state, while the production of components is profitable. The estimated output of components in September is 50.3 GW, a 2.3 GW increase from the previous month [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of polysilicon was 226,000 tons, a 10.78% week - on - week increase, at a high level [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 26, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Expected Trend: The polysilicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,530 - 52,400 [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures contracts showed a downward trend, with price declines ranging from 0.63% - 1.22% [14]. - Spot prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of most types of silicon [14]. - Inventory levels were mixed. Social inventory remained unchanged at 543,000 tons, while sample enterprise inventory decreased by 7.12% to 162,500 tons [14]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures contracts generally showed an upward trend, with price increases ranging from 0.07% - 0.82% [16]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [16]. - The total weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 10.78% to 226,000 tons [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China are presented in the historical data charts [18][19]. 5. Polysilicon Price Trends - The price trends of polysilicon main contracts and the basis trends are presented in the historical data charts [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory levels of industrial silicon in different regions and ports are presented in the historical data charts, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. 7. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production trends by specification are presented in the historical data charts [26][27][28]. - The capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate of sample enterprises are also presented in the historical data charts [29][31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented in the historical data charts [33][34]. 9. Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [35][36][38][39]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream Markets Organic Silicon - DMC: The production, capacity utilization, cost, profit, and price trends of DMC are presented in the historical data charts [41][42]. - Downstream Products: The price trends of downstream organic silicon products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented in the historical data charts [43][44][45]. - Inventory and Trade: The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC are presented in the historical data charts [48][49]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The price trends of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the cost - profit trends of imported ADC12, and the supply - related data such as scrap aluminum recycling, imports of aluminum scrap, and China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation are presented in the historical data charts [51][52]. - Inventory and Production: The monthly production trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the start - up rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots are presented in the historical data charts [54][55]. - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels are presented in the historical data charts [56]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The cost, price, production, and demand trends of polysilicon are presented in the historical data charts [59][60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of polysilicon is presented, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [62][63]. - Silicon Wafers: The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers are presented in the historical data charts [65][66]. - Battery Cells: The price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells are presented in the historical data charts [68][69]. - Photovoltaic Components: The price, production, inventory, and export trends of photovoltaic components are presented in the historical data charts [71][72]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: The price, production, import, and export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic films, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand are presented in the historical data charts [74][75].
工业硅期货早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-29 05:27