建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250929

Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market - On September 26, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures (J2601 and JM2601) opened lower and closed lower, giving back the gains since September 16. The J2601 contract closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 2.79%, with a trading volume of 29,563 lots and an open interest of 45,028 lots, a decrease of 663 lots. The JM2601 contract closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 2.64%, with a trading volume of 832,745 lots and an open interest of 688,546 lots, an increase of 5,026 lots [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On September 26, the spot prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1470 yuan/ton. Among the low - sulfur main coking coal prices, the price in Linfen increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable [8]. 2. Market Outlook 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Coke: Independent coking plant coke production has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks after reaching a new high since late May. Steel mill coke production has also declined slightly after a significant rebound from the lowest level since August 2023 in early September. Port coke inventory has dropped to the lowest level since mid - July, steel mill inventory has increased for five consecutive weeks to a new high since late May, and coking plant inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks and is approaching the lowest level since late October last year set in mid - August. Tonnage coke profit has been in loss for two consecutive weeks with the loss widening. Although there were spot price increase attempts in some northern regions from September 22 - 25, the possibility of steel mills accepting the increase is low [10]. - Coking Coal: From January to August, the year - on - year decline of China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline of coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. In the past 14 weeks, the inventories of mine clean coal and raw coal have decreased significantly, with overall declines of 57.7% and 34.6% respectively. Independent coking plant inventory has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks to a new high since early February, steel mill inventory has increased after four consecutive weeks of decline, and port inventory has declined from a new high since early August. Due to the significant replenishment by coking plants, some spot prices of coking coal have risen again [11]. 2.2 Overall Outlook - After a significant correction from mid - August to early September, the double - coke futures rebounded in mid - September but declined again in late September due to less incremental policies compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the coal - coke market will strengthen again after a period of consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material inventories [11]. 3. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in the added value of the petrochemical and chemical industry from 2025 - 2026 [12]. - On September 26, the National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0% [12]. - The Zhongwei - Zaoyang section of the West - East Gas Pipeline III was officially put into operation on September 26, with an annual gas transmission capacity of 25 billion cubic meters [12]. - Shougang Co., Ltd. stated that its iron ore supply is secure and it is promoting cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement measures [13]. - Pingmei Co., Ltd. announced a strategic reorganization between its controlling shareholder and Henan Energy Group Co., Ltd., which will not have a significant impact on its operations [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Gansu Energy Chemical Coal Storage and Transportation Co., Ltd. for 102 million yuan [13]. - Shaanxi Black Cat's performance was affected by the decline in product sales volume and price in the first half of the year but is expected to improve in the second half [13]. - Lanyan Holdings Co., Ltd. is engaged in the "coal - mining and gas - extraction integration" development model and has cooperation projects in multiple mining areas [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade - investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant measures on September 25 [13]. - On September 25, Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products in the United States starting from October 1 [14]. - In August 2025, global pig iron production was 117 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month increase of 1.9% [14]. - In August 2025, Russia's coal production was 31.616 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The coal production and export volume in the Sakhalin region are expected to increase to 20 million tons per year in the next three years [14]. - Indian officials requested the US to allow them to purchase oil from Iran and Venezuela if they are to cut Russian oil imports [14]. - Nippon Steel will invest approximately $300 million in two steel mills of U.S. Steel as part of a $11 billion investment commitment [14]. 4. Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price indices of metallurgical coke and main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average pig iron production, coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, production and inventory of sample mines, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][19][29][30][33].