大越期货沥青期货周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3420 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that the disk will have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [5][102]. - Currently, the demand is lower than the historical average. It is predicted that the demand recovery will be limited next week, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic asphalt sample production capacity was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises increased by 15.49% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. It is expected that the supply pressure will decrease next week [5]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 40.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 110.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; the in - plant inventory was 65.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the in - plant inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Base - spread trend: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China [9]. - Spread analysis: - 主力合约价差: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts [12]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Displays the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil [15]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Presents the cracking spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils [18]. - Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend: Shows the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [25]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit [27]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: Shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [30]. - Supply - side: - Shipment volume: Presents the weekly shipment volume [33]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [35]. - Output: Displays the weekly and monthly output [38]. - Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: Shows the price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil [41]. - Local refinery asphalt output: Presents the output of local refinery asphalt [44]. - 开工率: Displays the weekly开工率 [47]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: Shows the estimated maintenance loss volume trend [50]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) [53]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: Shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) [58]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: Displays the in - plant inventory inventory ratio [61]. - Import - export situation: Shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [64][67]. - Demand - side: - Petroleum coke output: Presents the petroleum coke output [70]. - Apparent consumption: Displays the apparent consumption [73]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: Shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [76]. - Downstream machinery demand: Displays the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers [80]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率: Displays the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [85]. - Asphalt开工率 by use: Shows the construction asphalt开工率 and the modified asphalt开工率 [88]. - Downstream开工率: Displays the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. [91]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [96]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend. Based on the price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract, it is expected that next week, it may have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [100][102].