豆粕周报：中美贸易谈判僵持，豆粕维持震荡-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean growing weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The US soybean market is affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the weather in the new US soybean production areas, with uncertainties remaining. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans and the demand for soybean meal [10][14][15]. - The soybean market is also in a volatile situation. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but is suppressed by factors such as the abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The market also focuses on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariffs [15]. - The situation in the pig - breeding industry shows that the recent breeding profit has turned poor, with an increase in short - term supply and a weak downstream replenishment enthusiasm. The demand for soybean meal in October needs attention, and the price is mainly determined by the supply side [56]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September. The soybean meal inventory in oil mills entered a relatively high level in September. The September USDA report had a relatively neutral impact, and the domestic soybean meal market returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September, and the abundant harvest of South American soybeans is expected to continue [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the soybean price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Weather: The weather in some US soybean production areas is currently normal, with a neutral impact. In the short - term, the weather in US soybean production areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - Import Cost: US soybeans are in a volatile state. The Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain, with a bullish impact. The import cost is expected to be volatile and weak, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - Oil Mill Crushing: The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to be good, and the crushing volume of oil mills remains high, with a bearish impact. The demand is expected to pick up in the short - term, and the oil mill operation is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. - Trading Volume: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term procurement has increased, with a bullish impact. The market trading volume is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook [9]. - Oil Mill Inventory: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, with a bearish impact. The upstream operation remains high, and the oil mill inventory is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - Soybean Meal - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean meal is volatile and falling, and may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have increased [10]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [17][19]. - Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean market is affected by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is in a volatile state [11]. - Strategy: The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [20]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures are volatile and falling, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has narrowed slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates at a low level [59][61]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - Soybeans - The soybean futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical rebound, but the upward space is limited, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. - Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern after rebounding from the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and rapeseed meal and the expected change in domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical consolidation, and the market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new guidance from the US soybean market and domestic factors [69]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growing weather in US soybean production areas, the Sino - US trade relationship and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. - Secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement. - Other important factors are macro - economic factors and conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel conflicts [72][73].