宏观经济周报2025年第40周-20250929

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index improved significantly this week, returning to the expansion zone, indicating ongoing recovery in the Chinese economy[1] - The consumption sentiment index has been in contraction for several weeks, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting a gradual recovery in consumer spending[1] - The production sentiment index rebounded to the expansion zone after two weeks of contraction, showing resilience in supply-side recovery[1] - The investment sentiment index remained robust, staying in the expansion zone, continuing to support stable growth[1] - The export sentiment index is near the expansion threshold, demonstrating structural resilience despite weak global demand[1] Financial Sector Developments - Direct financing's share increased to 31.6%, reflecting improvements in multi-level capital markets[2] - The annual growth rate of financing in technology, green, and inclusive sectors is high, indicating effective financial service to the real economy[2] - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing steadily, with foreign holdings of domestic assets expanding[2] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction, while the services sector showed some expansion with a composite PMI of 51.2[6] - The US manufacturing PMI was reported at 52, and the services PMI at 53.9, both indicating continued expansion but with signs of slowing demand[6] - The US second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, driven by stronger consumer spending[7]