瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250929

Report Summary - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply glut of industrial silicon has not improved, with Southwest China having a production cut expectation and Northwest China having stable production due to electricity price advantages [2]. - The downstream demand for industrial silicon in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors is generally flat. Organic silicon market is in decline, polysilicon has policy - related uncertainties, and aluminum alloy has stable production but limited demand for industrial silicon [2]. - The industry inventory is still at a high level, and there is pressure on inventory digestion. Today, the price of industrial silicon dropped significantly due to pre - holiday capital risk - aversion and weak photovoltaic demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the position of the main contract is 206,977 lots, down 34,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 68,897 lots, down 2,055 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,133 lots, up 67 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon is - 395 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon is - 395 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 840 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons; the weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 70.59%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Energy Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese photovoltaic enterprise, announced that it will supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, marking the continuous breakthrough of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the Latin American market with the "global production + local service" strategy [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year in August, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month, and increased by 0.9% year - on - year from January to August [2].