瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent nickel - iron prices have rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. Steel mills' production profits have improved, and with the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills are more confident, and their production schedules are expected to increase. However, the downstream is entering the traditional off - season. In October, infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies and anti - involution measures, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and pre - accumulated orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders of goods are more willing to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the price has dropped with an increase in positions, showing a strong short - selling atmosphere and breaking below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,336 lots, an increase of 2,501 lots; the main contract position is 87,251 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 562,300 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, make good use of securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, and stock repurchase and increase - holding re - loans. The new statement in the next - stage monetary policy indicates that the focus of monetary policy in the future will be to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the growth of Indonesia's nickel - iron production has slowed down while domestic production has gradually declined. China's industrial profits above a designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months [2].