合成橡胶产业日报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the overall inventory level of enterprises will decline slightly during the National Day holiday as downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods. - Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels last week, with only minor adjustments in overall operation. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday for maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 38,550, a decrease of 1,541. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,670 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $70.13 per barrel, an increase of $0.71; WTI crude oil was at $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $815 per ton, a decrease of $5; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608 per ton, a decrease of $0.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $1,060 per ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, an increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, an increase of 0.13 days [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.58%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.72%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels to reserve post - holiday inventory, with only minor adjustments in overall operation [2] 3.6 Key Concerns - No news on this day [2]