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美债收益率连续两周上行
2025-09-29 11:55

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates in September, the U.S. Treasury yields have risen for two consecutive weeks. The better - than - expected economic growth and employment data have reduced the need for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly and decreased market expectations for subsequent rate cuts, pushing up the U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. - The negotiation deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties over the government financing legislation draft may lead to a U.S. government shutdown in October. However, the market has largely priced in this situation, and the impact on the bond market is expected to be minor [1][3]. - Although the U.S. dollar risk - free rate continued to rise last week, Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds were still supported by the narrowing spread and showed general stability. In the on - shore market, due to the approaching National Day holiday and the end of the quarter, the pressure on inter - bank liquidity increased, pushing up short - term interest rates. After the National Day holiday, the pressure on inter - bank funds is expected to ease, which will drive down short - term Treasury yields [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Offshore Market - Last week, there were 6 new issuances of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds exceeding $100 million, totaling approximately $1.4 billion, mainly financial bonds and urban investment bonds. Offshore RMB bonds had new issuances of about RMB 61 billion, mainly driven by the issuance of RMB 60 billion central bank bills by the People's Bank of China [2]. - The 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury yields rose 5 and 7 basis points respectively to 4.18% and 3.64% last week. The U.S. second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarter final value increased by 3.8%, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. As of the week ending September 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since July [2]. - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bond total return index fell slightly by 0.1% last week, with the spread narrowing by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.1%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index remained flat, and the spread was basically unchanged [3]. On - shore Market - Last week, the People's Bank of China net - withdrew short - term liquidity of RMB 822.3 billion through reverse repurchase maturities and net - injected long - term funds of RMB 30 billion through MLF renewals. The 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rate and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average rate rose 5 and 12 basis points respectively to 1.56% and 1.64%. The 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points and remained flat respectively at 1.54% and 1.88% [4]. Recent New Issuances of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar Bonds - Newly issued bonds include those from companies such as New Metro Global Limited, Longkou Urban Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd., and Ping An Insurance Overseas (Holding) Company Limited, with different coupon rates, issuance amounts, and ratings [6]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar Bonds - The appendix provides detailed information on a large number of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds, including issuers, guarantors, coupon rates, issuance amounts, prices, ratings, etc. The issuers cover banks, state - owned enterprises, and urban investment companies [18][20].