Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views - Corn: Short - term prices are weak due to reduced terminal demand, but the decline is limited by low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs until consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [2]. - Starch: In the short - term, prices are likely to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [2]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazil's high - supply period. In China, imported sugar arrival and lower processing sugar prices add pressure to the market [3]. - Cotton: The market is in a range - bound state. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - Eggs: In September, prices rebounded due to increased demand, but high inventory restricts the increase. The probability of prices falling below feed costs is low. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9]. - Apples: New - season production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [11]. - Pigs: There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. In the short - term, supply pressure persists, and prices are at a low level. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, prices in some regions changed, e.g., the price in Jinzhou for corn decreased by 30, and the corn basis decreased by 11. Starch processing profit remained at - 31 [1]. - Analysis: Short - term price is weak due to reduced demand; long - term price is pressured by production and cost factors. Starch prices are expected to be adjusted downwards to reduce inventory [2]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the Thai import profit decreased by 34, the Brazilian import profit decreased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 483 [3]. - Analysis: International supply pressure affects prices, and in China, imported sugar and processing sugar prices impact the market [3]. Cotton - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 74 [4]. - Analysis: The market is in a range - bound state, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.18, the basis decreased by 58, the price of yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.20, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.10 [9]. - Analysis: Prices rebounded in September, but high inventory restricts the increase. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the national inventory decreased by 85, Shandong inventory decreased by 102, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 51. The 1 - month basis decreased by 198, the 5 - month basis decreased by 179, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 184 [10][11]. - Analysis: New - season production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [11]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.15, and the basis increased by 130 [15]. - Analysis: There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. In the short - term, supply pressure persists, and prices are at a low level. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15].
农产品早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-30 00:36