《农产品》日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Grains - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans currently lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited export performance due to the lack of Chinese demand, expected to remain in a low - range fluctuation. In China, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, soybean inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is also recovering. Under supply pressure, the basis is difficult to improve. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases alleviates the gap at the end of the year and in the first quarter of next year to some extent, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for slaughtering large - weight pigs has increased, resulting in both supply and demand increasing. Spot quotes are chaotic, and the decline in some regions has widened. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but the supply is clearly in a recovery pattern, and demand is insufficient to absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high. Pay attention to the weight adjustment of retail pigs after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - position funds in the far - month contracts are withdrawing. The market is expected to remain volatile, fluctuating slightly following the spot market [4]. Oils - For palm oil, with the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about inventory growth at the end of the year, crude palm oil futures are under pressure to fall below 4400 ringgit and then decline in a volatile manner. It is expected that after breaking through the annual line support of 4350 ringgit, the price may gradually seek support at 4200 ringgit. In China, due to concerns about the weakening of Malaysian palm oil, there is a risk that domestic palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially the risk of a compensatory decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports lead to a downward space for CBOT soybeans after fluctuations, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil price at the cost end. In China, after the pre - holiday stocking is completed, the market enters a holiday mode with light trading. During the holiday, factory production will accumulate inventory, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may relieve the pressure, the high inventory may still drag down the spot basis price [6]. Corn - In the Northeast region, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers having high enthusiasm for selling. The price has a stable local rebound, but there is still a downward expectation as the new - season harvest continues. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly consuming their own inventories, with no obvious highlights, but there is a seasonal replenishment demand. In the short term, as the market supply gradually increases, the futures price will remain weakly volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [7]. Sugar - In the short term, the raw sugar price is mainly dragged down by the rapid production in Brazil and the demand before the expiration of the October contract. The high sugar production and inventory during the peak crushing season in Brazil have led to an oversupply in the recent trade flow. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decline in cane crushing volume, the reduction in the sugar - making ratio, and the gradual shutdown of sugar mills from September to October. Overall, the positive factors for raw sugar are limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking is completed, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected to maintain a weak trend [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to rush to purchase seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price. In the medium term, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, with limited support. Therefore, domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, the risk - aversion sentiment of traders has increased, and the procurement volume in the origin has decreased. The weakening demand may drag down egg prices. The sufficient supply of eggs will also have a negative impact on the market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. It is expected that egg prices will remain bottom - oscillating in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium term [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Grains - Soybean Meal: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14% from the previous value; the basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Argentine soybeans for the November shipment is 255 yuan/ton, unchanged, while that of Brazilian soybeans is - 14 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan or 255.6% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 39055, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40% from the previous value; the futures price of RM2601 is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46% from the previous value; the basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20.00% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for the November shipment is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged. The warehouse receipt is 9245, unchanged [2]. - Soybeans: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 1 contract is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 1 contract is - 58 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 5.45% from the previous value. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3600 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.25% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is 340 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 2.72% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 7290, down 288 or - 3.80% from the previous value [2]. - Spreads: The soybean - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15% from the previous value; the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the spot is 2.86, down 0.024 or - 0.83% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.78, unchanged; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 517 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 2.82% from the previous value [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures Indicators: The basis of the main contract is 255 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan or 1120.00% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or - 2.23% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or - 2.40% from the previous value; the 11 - 1 spread is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 6.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 75453, down 9566 or - 11.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 0, down 298 from the previous value [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot price in Henan is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan, it is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Liaoning, it is 12400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 12960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Hunan, it is 12110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Hebei, it is 12600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [4]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88% from the previous value; the weekly white - strip pig price is 0 yuan/kg, down 19.8 yuan or - 100.00% from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.1 kg or 0.08% from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 yuan or - 203.23% from the previous value; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 237 yuan/head, down 37.3 yuan or - 18.69% from the previous value; the monthly inventory of reproductive sows is 40380000 heads, down 40000 or - 0.10% from the previous value [4]. Oils - Soybean Oil: The current price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or - 0.83% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.15% from the previous value; the basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or - 18.83% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 25534, unchanged [6]. - Palm Oil: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 1.30% from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous value; the basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or - 1966.67% from the previous value. The import cost of palm oil at Guangzhou Port in January is 9657.8 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan or 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is - 424 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.08% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 410, unchanged [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The current price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10200 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous value; the futures price of OI601 is 10093 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.68% from the previous value; the basis of OI601 is 107 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 37.18% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 8057, unchanged [6]. - Spreads: The soybean - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value; the palm - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 5.43% from the previous value; the rapeseed - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 3.27% from the previous value; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 6.58% from the previous value; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1148 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.95% from the previous value; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from the previous value; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1943 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan or - 2.85% from the previous value [6]. Corn - Corn: The price of corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or - 0.87% from the previous value; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 62.96% from the previous value; the bulk - grain price at Shekou is 2440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price is 1947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is 493 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 627, down 99 or - 13.64% from the previous value; the position is 1600487, down 36762 or - 2.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 21549, down 265 or - 1.21% from the previous value [7]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12% from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 3.75% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% from the previous value; the starch - corn futures spread is 324 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 7.28% from the previous value; the starch profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position is 274397, up 1926 or 0.71% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8189, unchanged [7]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous value; the price of ICE raw - sugar main contract is 16.40 cents per pound, up 0.05 cents or 0.31% from the previous value; the 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 417045, down 10429 or - 2.44% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8981, down 483 or - 5.10% from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [11]. -