《有色》日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the context of mining disturbances, the Shanghai copper price showed strong performance yesterday. Macro - economically, with potential further interest rate cuts in 2025, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, although copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, supply tightening in Q4 2025 due to mine shutdowns will support the price. In the short - term, prices may rise due to mining disturbances, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions will provide bottom support. The price center may gradually rise, with support at 81,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The market is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. Supply pressure is high with high domestic operating capacity and open import windows. Demand is weak, and the spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is generally warm, but the dollar index brings uncertainty. Fundamentally, supply and demand are mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost is rigid. Demand shows a mild recovery, and with pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, which may turn into an oversupply if inventory accumulates significantly. Demand is not outstanding. In the short - term, the price may rise due to macro - factors, but the upward elasticity is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 22,500 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand has not improved significantly. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the price rose. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain high and oscillate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oscillating state. Macro - economically, there are expectations of further interest rate cuts. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 125,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is stable. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not significantly improved. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly. Supply increment is marginal, and demand is robust. The whole industry chain is de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate and be sorted out, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.33% to 82,210 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.36% to 82,190 yuan/ton; SMM wet - process copper price fell by 0.32% to 82,125 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 111.37 yuan/ton to - 564 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The index of imported copper concentrates increased by 0.44 dollars/ton to - 40.36 dollars/ton; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 11.95% to 63.79 million tons [1]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory increased by 2.63% to 14.83 million tons; bonded area inventory decreased by 4.95% to 7.30 million tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 6.65% to 9.88 million tons [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.39% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss was - 1,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, an increase of 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 21.73 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% month - on - month; exports were 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 36.6% month - on - month [3]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Aluminum profile开工率 increased by 1.11% to 54.60%; aluminum cable开工率 remained unchanged at 65.20% [3]. Inventory Data - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.29% to 61.70 million tons; LME inventory remained unchanged at 51.6 million tons [3]. Alumina - The price of alumina futures decreased by 0.41% to 2,904 yuan/ton. The supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM ADC12 alloy prices in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - to - refined price difference decreased in various regions [5]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The overall recycled aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.35% to 53.41%, with different trends among large, medium, and small enterprises [5]. Inventory Data - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.72% to 5.57 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.46% to 21,630 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 127.44 yuan/ton to - 3,429 yuan/ton [9]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% month - on - month; exports were 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 23.40% month - on - month [9]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.23% to 55.82%; die - casting zinc alloy开工率 decreased by 4.05% to 49.73%; zinc oxide开工率 increased by 0.34% to 58.45% [9]. Inventory Data - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 9.94% to 14.14 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 2.34% to 4.3 million tons [9]. Tin Price and Spreads - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.84% to 271,400 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 5.40% to - 15,851.22 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Tin ore imports were 10,267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Data - SHEF inventory decreased by 6.14% to 6,559 tons; social inventory decreased by 6.66% to 7,890 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Spreads - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 122,000 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 19.89% to - 1,547 yuan/ton [12]. Cost Data - The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.15% to 117,171 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.96% to 125,970 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17,536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% month - on - month [12]. Inventory Data - SHFE inventory increased by 8.49% to 29,834 tons; social inventory increased by 1.04% to 41,484 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.20% to 230,124 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spreads - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the spot - to - futures price difference decreased by 96.53% to 460 yuan/ton [14]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, an increase of 60.48% month - on - month; exports were 44.79 million tons, an increase of 7.60% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Data - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.13% to 47.74 million tons; SHFE contract orders decreased by 0.45% to 8.71 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spreads - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased by 0.12% to 858 dollars/ton [16]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month; imports were 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% month - on - month [16]. Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 3.75% to 94,177 tons; downstream inventory increased by 16.46% to 53,440 tons; smelter inventory decreased by 21.60% to 40,737 tons [16].