燃料油早报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near - month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently showed wide - range fluctuations. The FU internal - external near - month also fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level year - on - year, the spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external price rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated [3][4]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residual oil decreased, floating storage fluctuated, ARA residual oil inventory decreased slightly, EIA residual oil decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly. The high - sulfur Middle - East peak season has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed its repair. Recently, refinery feedstock procurement has supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and a short - term internal - external bullish view is taken on domestic FU [4]. - This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis fluctuated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be enlarged on dips, and attention should be paid to quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 17.08, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 15.75, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.03, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 30.16, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 14.41, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.84, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.33 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 7.92, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.85, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.24, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 13.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 2.30, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 0.90, the 380 basis decreased by 0.40 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, FU 01 increased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 3, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, LU 01 increased by 5, LU 05 decreased by 17, LU 09 decreased by 10, LU 01 - 05 increased by 22, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 15 [3].