永安期货有色早报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Grasberg's unexpected production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the copper's medium - term allocation value is still optimistic [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and it's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices oscillated this week, with a short - term unilateral weak oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see, and partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak, and there is a certain motivation for price support on the policy side [3][4][5] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. Short - term observation is recommended, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated this week. After the hype of supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbances [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident postponed Grasberg's复产, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase next year without the复产 of the Panama mine [1] - Fund long positions are increasing, and the copper's allocation enthusiasm is expected to rise. It's advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and downstream start - up improved. There was a slight destocking in September, and a seasonal slight inventory build - up is expected in October [1] - It's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to long - short spreads and cross - market arbitrage [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreased further, and imported TC increased further. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2] - The smelting end will repair slightly in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge [2] - The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, steel mills are expected to resume production slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the policy side has a certain price - support motivation [3] - For stainless steel, the situation is similar to nickel, with weak fundamentals and policy - side price - support motivation [3][4][5] Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply is affected by low scrap volume, tight waste batteries, and low smelting profits [7] - Demand improved slightly due to National Day stocking, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the overall destocking strength needs verification [7] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] Tin - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. The supply side is undergoing marginal repair, and the demand side is mainly rigid - supported [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term supply - demand dual - weak. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. The supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated. The raw material side has strong price - support willingness, and the lithium salt side's pre - holiday stocking is almost over [11] - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with a surplus in static supply - demand. After the supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high [11]