Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Near - term TA has a mix of maintenance and restart, with a slight increase in operation, a decline in polyester load, a small inventory build - up, stable basis, and continued repair of spot processing fees. PX domestic operation is stable, overseas units are under maintenance, PXN weakens, disproportionation benefits are stable while isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains. TA has additional load - reduction and production - cut plans, but with no significant performance in polyester, far - month inventory build - up is expected. After valuation repair, far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable, and attention should be paid to additional maintenance [2]. - MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, there are some overseas maintenance, port inventory builds up slightly at the beginning of next week with flat shipping, downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks. EG new units start earlier than expected, with significant valuation compression. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term unit operation is stable, operation rate remains at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, finished - product inventory is reduced, and benefits are weak. In the future, the speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished - product inventory in polyester yarn. The operation rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [3]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The main contradiction is that the national visible inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - Styrene: No overall outlook is provided in the report, but price and profit data for related products are presented. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From September 23 to 29, crude oil decreased by 2.1, naphtha decreased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3, PTA spot price remained unchanged, POY 150D/48F increased by 20, naphtha cracking spread increased by 15.08, PX processing margin increased by 4, PTA processing margin decreased by 9, and polyester profit increased by 20. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 3600, and the basis increased by 7 [2]. - Operation and Market Situation: Near - term TA operation slightly increased, polyester load decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, basis was stable, and spot processing fees continued to repair. PX domestic operation was stable, overseas units were under maintenance, PXN weakened, disproportionation benefits were stable while isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained [2]. - Future Outlook: TA has additional load - reduction and production - cut plans, but with no significant performance in polyester, far - month inventory build - up is expected. After valuation repair, far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable, and attention should be paid to additional maintenance [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From September 23 to 29, Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price increased by 1, MEG far - month price decreased by 5, MEG coal - based profit increased by 1, and MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) increased by 4. Other indicators remained unchanged [3]. - Operation and Market Situation: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, there are some overseas maintenance, port inventory builds up slightly at the beginning of next week with flat shipping, downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks [3]. - Future Outlook: EG new units start earlier than expected, with significant valuation compression. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From September 23 to 29, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 40, the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, and other prices had minor changes. Short - fiber profit decreased by 62, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 5 [3]. - Operation and Market Situation: Near - term unit operation is stable, operation rate remains at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, finished - product inventory is reduced, and benefits are weak [3]. - Future Outlook: The speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished - product inventory in polyester yarn. The operation rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From September 23 to 29, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 10, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed decreased by 20, and other prices had various changes. The weekly change in RU main contract decreased by 240, and the weekly change in NR main contract increased by 5 [4]. - Market Situation: The main contradiction is that the national visible inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects tapping [4]. - Future Outlook: The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From September 23 to 29, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and other prices had minor changes. Styrene domestic profit remained at - 445, EPS domestic profit increased by 10, PS domestic profit decreased by 10, and ABS domestic profit remained at - 926 [7].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-30 01:33