甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025, the daily change of动力煤期货 price was 0,江苏现货 increased by 12,华南现货 decreased by 2, and西北折盘面 increased by 5 [2] Core View - The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked to the inland price. Xingxing is expected to start in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. The current valuation, inventory, and driving force are not good, so bottom - fishing needs to wait [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged,华北LL increased by 20,华东LL increased by 15, and主力期货 increased by 22 [6] Core View - For polyethylene, Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6] Group 4: Polypropylene (PP) Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased by 60,华东PP decreased by 10,华北PP decreased by 13, and山东粉料 decreased by 30 [7] Core View - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories of Sinopec and PetroChina are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,西北电石 decreased by 50,山东烧碱 decreased by 10, and电石法 - 西北 decreased by 20 [7] Core View - The basis of PVC is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7]