广发期货《黑色》日报-20250930

1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel market is affected by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. In September, the seasonal rebound in steel apparent demand and high - level steel exports will help digest production, and steel inventory is expected to decrease. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound, with螺纹 steel fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and热卷 between 3300 - 3500 yuan. In late September, prices dropped significantly, and support levels near 3100 for螺纹 steel and 3500 for热卷 should be monitored. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [1]. Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. The supply side will see the average arrival volume at ports first increase and then decrease. The demand side shows that steel mills' restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but are still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. Looking ahead, iron ore will be supported by high steel mill profitability and low port inventory year - on - year, but there is a risk of port inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balance state, but is dragged down by weak finished products. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 750 - 830. Shorting the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal are recommended [4]. Coke - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot price is expected to gradually rebound, with a possible 2 - 3 rounds of increases. The supply side has seen some coke enterprises' production decline due to losses, while the demand side has seen continuous small increases in molten iron production. The inventory is moderately increased, and the pre - holiday restocking is nearly over. The market will focus on post - holiday supply - demand changes. Speculative investors are advised to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot market is relatively strong, with increased downstream purchasing willingness. The supply side has seen coal mines resume production, and the demand side has seen increased restocking demand. The inventory is moderately increased, but the pre - holiday restocking is nearly over. The market will shift to trading the supply - demand situation and market expectations in October. The coking coal price may peak and decline as demand weakens. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads -螺纹 steel and热卷 prices generally declined. For example,螺纹 steel spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and热卷 spot prices in East China, North China, and South China also decreased by 10 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs and profits changed slightly, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace螺纹 steel increasing by 1 yuan, and the profit of East China热卷 increasing by 1 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 9.4 to 864.9, a 1.1% increase. The output of螺纹 steel remained unchanged, while the output of热卷 decreased by 2.3 to 324.2, a 0.7% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.1 to 1510.6, a 0.6% decrease. The螺纹 steel inventory decreased by 14.0 to 636.3, a 2.1% decrease, while the热卷 inventory increased by 2.5 to 380.5, a 0.7% increase [1]. Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 11.0, a 3.3% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 874.1, a 2.8% increase, and the apparent demand for螺纹 steel increased by 10.4 to 220.4, a 5.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of various iron ore powders decreased, and the spot prices at Rizhao Port also declined. For example, the inventory cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 to 824.9, a 0.9% decrease, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7.0 to 778.0, a 0.9% decrease [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 314.5 to 2360.5, an 11.8% decrease, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 150.6 to 3475.4, a 4.5% increase. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase. The weekly average daily port clearance volume decreased by 2.8 to 336.4, a 0.8% decrease. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 69.3 to 14000.28, a 0.5% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 427.0 to 9736.4, a 4.6% increase, and the available inventory days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 24.0, a 9.1% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices declined. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 46 to 1647, a 2.7% decrease. The supply side saw a slight decrease in the daily average output of all - sample coking plants, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production. The total coke inventory increased, with coking plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices also declined. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1154, a 3.6% decrease. The supply side saw an increase in coal mine production, and the demand side saw an increase in restocking demand. The inventory increased moderately, with mines and ports reducing inventory and other sectors increasing inventory [6].