原油成品油早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while the Dubai month - spread declined. There is a divergence between crude oil fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risk factors. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, with an absolute level similar to that in 2019 and at a high in the past five years. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth - quarter crude oil balance and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Recently, the market has been trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering has affected the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the group to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by over 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand. An online meeting of eight member countries will be held on October 5 to decide the production arrangement for November [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution volume of 3.86 million tons and a substitution ratio of 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak due to high - temperature and rainy weather, and the substitution effect of new - energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics has been steadily increasing [4] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of U.S. oil rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for U.S. crude oil to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower - priced Middle - East crude oil, which is closer to major global demand regions [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day [6] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [6] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent and WTI crude month - spreads rebounding and Dubai month - spread declining. There is a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risks. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, and OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, along with gasoline and diesel inventories. Global refinery profits rebounded again. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus in the crude oil balance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026 [7]