白糖日报-20250930

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: SR601 closed at 5479 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.22%, with a position reduction of 10,429 contracts; SR605 closed at 5437 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.28%, with a position increase of 995 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 7452 contracts; US Sugar 05 closed at 15.89 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.57%, with a position increase of 3069 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly on Friday, while Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. Domestic spot prices in production areas slightly declined. Zhengzhou sugar has entered the pre-holiday adjustment period, with reduced volatility as funds seek risk aversion. Speculative short positions slightly decreased after the market [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: Minas Gerais will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, with a decline in total output. As of the first half of September, the state had crushed 58.2 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output this season, a decrease of about 4.5% compared to the 2024/25 season. Analysts expect the sugar output in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons, with a 6.8% increase in sugarcane crushing volume to 45.92 million tons, but a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sugar content per ton of sugarcane to 153.84 kg. Ethanol output is expected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.37 billion liters [9] - Pakistan: The floods in 2025 have severely damaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million acres of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Major crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn have been severely affected [9] - Global Sugar Market: StoneX expects a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. Improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset the expected decline in Europe [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][22]