广发早知道：汇总版-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market was boosted by brokerage stocks, with the index fluctuating upwards. The bond market was cautious due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees. The precious metals market continued to rise strongly due to the ongoing fermentation of the US government shutdown crisis. The shipping index (European line) showed a weak and volatile trend, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts. The copper price remained high due to supply concerns. The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with a downward - pressured price. The aluminum market was supported by the peak - season effect and inventory inflection point, with the price expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The zinc market was expected to remain volatile under the background of supply and demand. The tin price rose significantly at night due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. The nickel market was expected to maintain an interval shock. The stainless steel market was mainly in a short - term shock adjustment, and the lithium carbonate market was expected to fluctuate and sort out. The steel market's inventory pressure was not large, and the iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. The coking coal and coke markets were expected to fall after the peak due to the end of pre - holiday replenishment. The粕 market had supply pressure in the near - term, and the pig market was in a situation of loose supply and demand with a weak adjustment of the spot price before the National Day [2][5][8][12][13][19][22][25][32][36][39][42][46][49][51][56][63][64][67] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Monday, A - share major indexes fluctuated upwards and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3] - News: Domestically, the Politburo meeting studied the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission supported enterprises to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. Overseas, South Korea and the US reached an agreement on exchange - rate issues [3][4] - Funding: On September 29, the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted a net investment of 481 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4] - Operation Suggestion: After the Fed cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to shock. It was recommended to lightly short the put option of MO2511 with an exercise price near 6800 to collect the premium [4] Treasury Futures - Market Performance: Treasury futures closed lower across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.47%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [5] - Funding: The inter - bank market's capital was generally stable on Monday, but there were structural contradictions at the end of the quarter. The central bank's continuous net investment of reverse repurchase made the cross - quarter funds generally stable [7] - Operation Suggestion: Due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees, the bond market sentiment was cautious. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [7] Precious Metals - Market Review: The US government shutdown crisis continued to ferment, and the US and the Democratic Party had differences on the temporary spending bill. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an emergency plan in case of a government shutdown [8] - Market Performance: Overnight, precious metals continued to rise strongly. The international gold price broke through the $3800 mark, and the international silver price also rose [10] - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the Fed's policy and political situation in Europe and the US would drive the price of precious metals to new highs. It was recommended to buy wide - straddle options before the National Day and buy out - of - the - money call options later. For silver, it was recommended to buy on dips [11] Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotation: As of September 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports of different shipping companies were provided. As of September 29, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile. Only CMA announced the price for November, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper decreased. The trading was quiet [13] - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [14] - Supply: The Grasberg mine accident increased supply concerns. The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [16] - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod production increased. The demand in the fourth quarter might weaken marginally, but the overall demand was resilient [17] - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper and domestic social inventory increased [18] - Logic: The copper price was expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts. The supply was expected to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the demand was resilient. It was recommended to hold long positions [19] Alumina - Spot: On September 29, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory continued to accumulate [19] - Supply: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [20][21] - Inventory: As of September 25, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts increased [21] - Logic: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was expected to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [22] Aluminum - Spot: On September 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium also decreased [23] - Supply: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [23] - Demand: The downstream industries were in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate generally increased [23] - Inventory: As of September 25, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged on September 29 [24] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut brought uncertainty, but the domestic macro - environment was warm. The supply was high, the cost support was weakened, and the demand was in the peak season. The inventory inflection point appeared, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 29, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [27] - Supply: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It was expected to increase slightly in September [27] - Demand: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it showed a marginal improvement in the transition period. It was expected to recover moderately in September [27] - Inventory: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [28] - Logic: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated with the aluminum price. The supply was still tight, the cost support was significant, and the demand recovered moderately. The price was expected to remain high and volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [29] Zinc - Spot: On September 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and some downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [30] - Supply: The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the domestic zinc ingot production increased significantly since June. It was expected that the cumulative production from January to September would increase by more than 9% year - on - year [31] - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was in line with the peak - season performance, but the overall demand was still weak [32] - Inventory: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [32] - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The zinc price was expected to remain volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [33] Tin - Spot: On September 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was light [33] - Supply: In August, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased slightly, and the import volume from Myanmar increased. The tin ingot import volume decreased [34] - Demand and Inventory: In August, the operating rate of the solder industry increased, but the overall demand was still weak. The inventory decreased [35] - Logic: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the tin price rose at night. The price was expected to operate between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [36] Nickel - Spot: As of September 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel and imported nickel decreased [36] - Supply: In August, the domestic refined nickel production increased, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [37] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloy was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the peak season but had limited sustainability [38] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory was stable, and bonded area inventory decreased [38] - Logic: The nickel market was in an interval shock. The Fed's interest rate cut and Indonesian mining policies were factors to be concerned about. The price was expected to operate between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [39] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 29, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis decreased [40] - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased [40][42] - Supply: In August, the domestic stainless steel production increased, and the production in September was expected to continue to increase, mainly in the 300 - series [41] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [41] - Logic: The stainless steel market was in a short - term shock adjustment. The raw material price was firm, but the peak - season demand was not obvious. The main contract was expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [42] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 29, the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased. The trading was light before the holiday [44] - Supply: In August, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the weekly production continued to increase slightly in the recent period, mainly from new projects and lithium spodumene processing [44] - Demand: The demand was robust and optimistic, and the orders in September and October were expected to increase [45] - Inventory: The whole - link inventory continued to decrease, with the upstream smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory [45] - Logic: The supply path was clear, and the demand in the peak season provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main contract price was expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46] Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar was 234 yuan, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 42 yuan [46] - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from the high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47] - Supply: From January to August, the iron element production increased by 2800 tons year - on - year, and it was expected to increase by 3700 tons in the first nine months. The rebar production decreased, and the hot - rolled coil production remained high [47][48] - Demand: From January to August, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year. The export increment was not expected to be large. The apparent demand in August - September decreased, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [48] - Inventory: Since August, the inventory has increased significantly. It was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [48] - View: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, with the rebar fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan [49] Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 29, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [49] - Futures: The iron ore 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [49] - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [49] - Demand: As of September 25, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the daily consumption of imported ore also increased [49] - Supply: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [50] - Inventory: The port inventory increased, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [50] - View: The iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. It was recommended to short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 750 - 830 yuan [51] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The spot price of coking coal was strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to rise and then fall [52] - Supply: This week, the main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian coal price increased. The port was closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [56] - Demand: The pig iron output continued to rise, and the coking plant's operation was stable, with the downstream replenishment demand increasing [56] - Inventory: The coal mine and port inventory decreased, while the port, coal - washing plant, coking plant, and steel mill inventory increased [55] - View: It was recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan [56] Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase, which was accepted by some steel mills and would be implemented on October 1 [58] - Profit: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 34 yuan/ton [59] - Supply: Due to the rise in coking coal prices, some coking enterprises suffered losses, and the operation rate decreased [63] - Demand: The steel mill continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [61] - Inventory: The coking plant and port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased [62] - View: It was recommended to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan [63] Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On September 29, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, and the vegetable meal price increased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal increased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [64] - Fundamentals: The US soybean export sales and drought situation, Argentina's export tax policy, China's purchase of Argentine soybeans, and the EU's oilseed import situation were reported [64][65] - Outlook: The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - term price was under