建信期货MEG日报-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand and cost drivers of ethylene glycol (MEG) are insufficient at present. With the approaching National Day holiday, market participants are leaving the market to wait and see. It is expected that MEG may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 29th, the main contract of MEG futures opened at 4,215 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,245 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,209 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,225 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 115,895 lots, and the open interest was 320,886 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with an open interest of 320,886 lots, a decrease of 5,154 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with an open interest of 5,070 lots, an increase of 177 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - Crude Oil: Affected by the continuous attacks on a certain European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the prospect of additional sanctions by the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints were triggered. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two months. Brent crude futures rose for four consecutive trading days and exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since August. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the November 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42; the settlement price of the November 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [8]. - MEG Market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price of MEG in Zhangjiagang this week (before September 30) was 4,288 - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation price before October 10 was 4,292 - 4,293 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price in late October was 4,294 - 4,296 yuan/ton. The basis of the current week's spot (before September 30) was at a premium of 64 - 66 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before October 10 was at a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis in late October was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price of the MEG market in Zhangjiagang was 4,280 - 4,310 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].