贵金属早报-20250930

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Morning Report - September 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Due to concerns about the US government shutdown, gold and silver prices have risen. Gold prices reached a new high, and silver prices continued to rise significantly. Overall, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but investors are advised to hold light positions during holidays [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to decline, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices [10][13] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - US government shutdown concerns pushed up gold and silver prices. US and European stock indexes closed slightly higher, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar [4][6] - COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - Today, focus on China's September PMI, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, US August job openings, and intensive speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank members [4] - Although precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, due to the many events during the holiday and the continued concerns about the US government shutdown, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][6] 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and central bank events are scheduled for today, including Japan's economic data, China's PMI data, Australia's central bank policy rate decision, and speeches by central bank officials from the US, Europe, and the UK [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is -4.62, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,802 kilograms to 68,628 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [5] - Silver: The basis is -59, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 31,382 kilograms to 1,189,648 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [6] 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.48% on September 29 compared to September 28, the short positions decreased by 4.39%, and the net position increased by 1.67%. Compared with September 26, the long positions decreased by 10.43%, the short positions decreased by 8.40%, and the net position decreased by 16.77% [30][31] - Silver: Not detailed in the position change data, but the main net position is long and the main long positions increased [6] - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF holdings continued to increase [34] - Silver ETF: The ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [37]