沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250930

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - 沪镍: The overall situation is bearish, with the price fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average in the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Traders should control their positions before the holiday [2]. - 不锈钢: The situation is neutral, with the price broadly fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data - 镍 and Stainless Steel Price: On September 29, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 121,100, down 280 from September 26; the London nickel price was 15,325, up 170. The stainless steel主力 contract was 12,760, down 80. Spot prices of various nickel and stainless - steel products showed little change [12]. - 基差: The Shanghai nickel spot price was 122,000, with a basis of 900; the average stainless - steel price was 13,962.5, with a basis of 1,202.5 [2][4]. 2. Inventory Data - 镍 Inventory: As of September 29, LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (up 1,188), and Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (down 96) [2]. - 不锈钢 Inventory: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 87,148 (down 357). On September 26, the national stainless - steel inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 5,400 tons [4][19][20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - 镍 Fundamental: The nickel ore price is firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. The nickel - iron price is stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - 不锈钢 Fundamental: The spot stainless - steel price is flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price, shipping freight, and nickel - iron price are all stable, and the cost line is firm. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [4]. 4. Market Outlook - 镍 Outlook: The Shanghai nickel 2511 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, operating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [2]. - 不锈钢 Outlook: The stainless - steel 2511 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 5. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - Negative Factors: Domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].