沪锌期货早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures decline in a volatile manner, closing with a negative candlestick. Trading volume increased, and both long and short positions added, with more short positions. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The price closed below the long - term moving average, with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the short - side advantage expanding. The recommendation is that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will move weakly in a volatile pattern [2][19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,670, with a basis of - 130, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,691 tons to 59,264 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 29, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 695,182 lots, with a turnover of 3.06335844 billion yuan, and an open interest of 251,024 lots, an increase of 20,743 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On September 29, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 16,380 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 18 to September 29, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 148,300 tons to 128,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to September 22 and 7,000 tons compared to September 25 [5]. 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On September 29, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 59,264 tons, an increase of 1,691 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 400 tons in Shanghai, 2,839 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 1,548 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons, with different situations in various warehouses [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 29, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 250 yuan/ton [8]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 29, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 320 yuan/ton [12]. 11. Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 29, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions had different price ranges and changes, with import processing fees at 105 US dollars/dry ton for 48% - grade [16]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 29, the total trading volume of members was 283,338 lots, an increase of 86,084 lots; the total long positions were 97,241 lots, an increase of 10,324 lots; the total short positions were 97,542 lots, an increase of 11,277 lots [17].