Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the spot price at 1740 (+10). The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%. The overall inventory is at a high level, with the UR comprehensive inventory at 152.5 million tons (+10.4). The main contract's 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net long but reducing long positions. International urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high production rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's operating rate is at a medium level, the melamine industry's operating rate has significantly declined, and agricultural demand is weak. China's overall urea supply exceeds demand, and although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies [4]. - Basis: The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), indicating a bearish situation [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position of UR is net long, but the long positions are being reduced, which is a bullish factor [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile. With strong international urea prices and no more liberal export policies than expected, and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown an overall upward trend. The import dependence on PP has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].
大越期货尿素早报-20250930
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-30 02:14