PTA、MEG早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - Main Position: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - Expectation: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - Main Position: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - Expectation: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - Bearish Factors: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - Price - related Data: - Bottle Chip Spot Price: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - Bottle Chip Inventory: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - PTA Spread and Basis: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - MEG Spread and Basis: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - Spot Spread: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - Inventory Analysis: - PTA Inventory: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - MEG Inventory: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - PET Chip Inventory: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - Polyester Inventory: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: - Upstream Operating Rates: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - Downstream Operating Rates: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - Profit - related Data: - PTA Processing Fee: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - MEG Profit: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - Polyester Fiber Profit: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].