大越期货沪铜早报-20250930

Report Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month. The basis is neutral with the spot price at 82,215 and a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is neutral with a decrease in copper inventory on September 29 and a decrease in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20-day moving average which is moving upwards, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals, basis, and inventory of copper are neutral, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to maintain strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific利多and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the middle price, changes, and inventory details such as types, total amounts, and changes, is presented, but specific data is not fully provided in the given context [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated in the provided content. Exchange Inventory - Information on exchange inventory is mentioned, but specific details are not fully given [11]. 保税区库存 - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated in the provided content. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].