大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - LLDPE: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - PP: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].