大越期货PVC期货早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market shows a bearish trend fundamentally, with negative factors such as overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [5][11][13]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4867 - 4925 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On September 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -116 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [11]. - Factory inventory was 31.8237 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous period, and social inventory was 53.47 tons, a 0.01% increase from the previous period. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase from the previous period, which is bearish [11]. - The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase from the previous period. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 19.20% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 1.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2329.25 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of PVC products and enterprises [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [20][23][26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][35]. Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production [40][41][43]. Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][47][49][55][58]. Inventory - Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [60]. Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method [62]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [65].