集运早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcement nodes, high operation space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating, and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts for December and February are still high, but they may still fluctuate in the short term under the poor implementation expectations in October and the expected price increase in November. The current valuation of the April contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, with attention to the fact that low liquidity may cause short - term disturbances [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1115.0, with a decline of 2.11%, the trading volume was 16679, the open interest was 29314, and the open interest change was - 3117. For EC2512, the closing price was 1756.3, with a decline of 1.16%, the trading volume was 11879, the open interest was 20683, and the open interest change was - 1012. Similar data are provided for other contracts like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 [2] - The monthly spreads such as EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 also have their respective changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Spot Market - The SCEIS SCFI (European line) index on September 29, 2025, was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 10.71% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 614.14, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period [2] Current European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of September and early October (week 40 - 41). The average quotation for week 40 - 41 is 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). For week 42, MSK's opening quotation is 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and some shipping companies have announced price increases after the holiday [4] News - On September 30, it was reported that Hamas is unlikely to accept Trump's Gaza peace plan. The new cease - fire plan put forward by US President Trump is essentially an ultimatum to Hamas, and it is predicted that the US will use Hamas' possible rejection to "portray Palestinians as obstacles to peace" [5]