大越期货豆粕早报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term volatile situation, affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports its price. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also contributes to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war make the short - term soybean meal market remain volatile [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in September in China, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 3030 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.25 - 25.9 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From September 19th to 29th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was relatively stable, around 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From September 17th to 29th, the bean 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 7922 to 7290, the bean 2 warehouse receipts decreased from 100 to 0, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts remained at 39055 [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: From March - September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [42]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.