Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - Demand side: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - Basis: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Market trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Main positions: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract spread: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - Production volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - Import - export situation: - Export and import trends: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - Apparent consumption: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - Downstream demand: - Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - Downstream machinery demand: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250930
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-30 03:00