广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250930

1. Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains bearish, suggesting a short - selling strategy during rebounds. For glass, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term, and policy implementation and downstream stocking behavior in the fourth quarter need to be monitored [1]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash prices in various regions remained stable, with some futures contracts showing declines. For example, glass 2505 dropped by 1.90% and soda ash 2509 fell by 0.87%. The basis of some contracts increased, like the 05 basis of glass rose by 17.11% and that of soda ash by 21.43% [1]. - Supply: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output dropped by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6158.30, soda ash factory inventory dropped by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons [1]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, and completion area decreased by 0.19% [1]. 2. Logs Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Logs are in a volatile pattern, with the market expected to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume during the peak season [3]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Log futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2511 contract rising by 0.12% to 808.5 yuan/cubic meter. Some spot prices increased, such as the 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong rising by 1.33% to 760 yuan/cubic meter [3]. - Supply: The monthly port shipment volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44 [3]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the total national coniferous log inventory was 286 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.05% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The average daily log shipment volume increased by 10% to 6.56 million cubic meters as of September 26 [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and the price is likely to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and those in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Some industrial silicon spot prices declined, such as the East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon dropping by 0.53% to 9450 yuan/ton. Some basis and monthly spreads changed, like the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 66.67% [4]. - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, the national operating rate rose by 6.20% to 55.87%, and the exports increased by 3.56% to 7.66 million tons [4]. - Inventory: Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 11.63% to 10.64 million tons, and the social inventory remained unchanged at 54.30 million tons [4]. 4. Polysilicon Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to national policies, enterprise production reduction, and downstream inventory digestion and order demand [5]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable, and the main futures contract dropped by 0.36% to 51280 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the current - first - month spread increasing by 1600.00% [5]. - Fundamentals: Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01% to 13.78 GW, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% to 16.23 GW [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Before the holiday, natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak season and the impact of La Nina [6]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Some natural rubber spot prices declined, such as the Yunnan state - owned standard rubber dropping by 0.68% to 14550 yuan/ton. Some basis and monthly spreads changed, like the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 600.00% [6]. - Fundamentals: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 ten - tons, and China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 ten - tons. The August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10295.4 million pieces, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% to 6301.0 [6]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01% to 456525, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.62% to 42942 [6].